dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaStatistical Characterization and Prediction of E2E Latency over LEO Satellite Networks
| Authors | Andreas Casparsen, Jonas Ellegaard Jakobsen, Jimmy Jessen Nielsen, Petar Popovski, Israel Leyva Mayorga |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | 2601.08439vv1 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.08439 |
| License | http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ |
Abstract
Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite networks are emerging as an essential communication infrastructure, with standardized 5G-based non-terrestrial networks and their integration with terrestrial systems envisioned as a key feature of 6G. However, current LEO systems still exhibit significant latency variations, limiting their suitability for latency-sensitive services. We present a detailed statistical analysis of end-to-end latency based on 500Hz experimental bidirectional one-way measurements and introduce a segmentation of the deterministic 15-second periodic behavior observed in Starlink. We characterize handover-induced boundary regions that produce latency spikes lasting approximately 140 ms at the beginning and 75 ms at the end of each cycle, followed by a stable intra-period regime, enabling accurate short-term prediction. This analysis shows that latency prediction based on long-term statistics leads to pessimistic estimates. In contrast, by exploiting the periodic structure, isolating boundary regions, and applying lightweight parametric and non-parametric models to intra-period latency distributions, we achieve 99th-percentile latency prediction errors below 50 ms. Furthermore, period-level latency prediction and classification enable adaptive transmission strategies by identifying upcoming periods where application latency requirements cannot be satisfied, necessitating the use of alternative systems.
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"abstract": "Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite networks are emerging as an essential communication infrastructure, with standardized 5G-based non-terrestrial networks and their integration with terrestrial systems envisioned as a key feature of 6G. However, current LEO systems still exhibit significant latency variations, limiting their suitability for latency-sensitive services. We present a detailed statistical analysis of end-to-end latency based on 500Hz experimental bidirectional one-way measurements and introduce a segmentation of the deterministic 15-second periodic behavior observed in Starlink. We characterize handover-induced boundary regions that produce latency spikes lasting approximately 140 ms at the beginning and 75 ms at the end of each cycle, followed by a stable intra-period regime, enabling accurate short-term prediction. This analysis shows that latency prediction based on long-term statistics leads to pessimistic estimates. In contrast, by exploiting the periodic structure, isolating boundary regions, and applying lightweight parametric and non-parametric models to intra-period latency distributions, we achieve 99th-percentile latency prediction errors below 50 ms. Furthermore, period-level latency prediction and classification enable adaptive transmission strategies by identifying upcoming periods where application latency requirements cannot be satisfied, necessitating the use of alternative systems.",
"arxiv_id": "2601.08439",
"authors": [
"Andreas Casparsen",
"Jonas Ellegaard Jakobsen",
"Jimmy Jessen Nielsen",
"Petar Popovski",
"Israel Leyva Mayorga"
],
"categories": [
"cs.NI"
],
"license": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
"title": "Statistical Characterization and Prediction of E2E Latency over LEO Satellite Networks",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.08439",
"version": "v1"
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